i think they will fight because it will be super cool but it will be a friendly match.
first Toph is completely immune to direct earth and maybe fire attacks
however she is vulnerable at indirect attacks and air & water direct attacks
and probably her bigest weakness is her temper.Compared to Bumi who i don't see ever getting angry.
Now Bumi probably knows earth-seeing but probably not as advanced as Toph since he can see but Toph has to use it as the main sense instead of sight.
Metal-bending is not a advantage because they will most probably fight on earth Kingdom ground.Bumi most probably knows metal-bending quite well since he said he can escape anytime he wants.
as i see the match will be like this:
Angry??Toph will challenge calm Bumi to a match.Since Bumi has not met her before he will start evaluating his opponent to discover her weakness and he might use it or not.He will make her angry to make her attack him in all the ways she knows.He will probably mess wit her( he said it "first, it's fun messing with people") -- he did even get Aang(a monk )??angry.He??will simply annoy her to make her reveal her tricks.
Round 2.
He will indirectly (using the sealing etc.)??attack her OR use faceearth-bending since the face muscles aren't usually scanned by her for earth-bending movement OR use delayed attacks(hold a bolder in air a longer period so she dose not know where it is) OR use some other trick.
The battle will end and Bumi will let Toph tie.It is his stile :he lets you win but you know you didn't win on your own-- he allowed it. Both will say that they had valuable opponents and will start learning from each other.