Here's the data for each episode in:
Who was voted off
Who should have been voted off (ranked 1 through whatever number were left and eligible to be voted off)
Who would have been voted off had the other team won (team challenges only)
Possible ways to change the outcome (team challenges only)
NOT SO HAPPY CAMPERS
Ezekiel was voted off
Who should have been voted off: Ezekiel, Courtney-DJ tie, Eva, everyone else tie
Who would have been voted off had the Killer Bass won: Beth, Heather (see below,) everyone else tie
Possible ways to change the outcome: Ignoring the hot tub for now, and focusing only on the cliff diving, it seems obvious that had the writers wanted the Bass to win, Courtney would have jumped, and one of three other things would have happened:
1. Heather would not have been thrown off the cliff, and would have chickened instead
2. Someone else would have chickened (though Heather is seperate from this as she did not actually jump, but LeShawna threw her off)
3. Izzy would have jumped for the Bass prior to switching teams
More episodes coming later