There is no need in asking the "what if" questions. The fact is, Aang isn't dead, so we shouldn't worry about who would be the avatar if that was the case. It would be like asking "If Katara didn't break Aang out of the iceburg, who would?" The question is useless because it would be unknown. What's more important is that Katara was the one who broke him out and Aang is still alive.
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